Actually, why does there have to be a point, as such? Thinking about possible futures could be done for its own intrinsic enjoyment. I love the "what if" approach to thinking about futures; as Oliver Freeman says, suspending disbelief is required, and that has been deemed a healthy activity and is often a source of relaxation and pleasure.
However, I think that most of us will be using scenario planning as much more than an intellectual exercise, and therefore, I would argue that the point is the ability that the exercise of scenario planning and the scenarios themselves have to take us forward as an organisation. Because, as the wikipedia article reminded us, scenarios are not 'static beacons', and can be used as much to find the futures that we might want to prevent as they can to find the possibilities of the ones we find initially attractive.
Having learned in the last few days that we should be wary about drawing conclusions from history, I hesitate to reflect on my own history around futures planning, but will do so just for a moment... In the 1990s, our entire organisation participated in futures planning. It was never called scenario planning that I heard, but looking back, all the relevant features were present. After the huge amount of time and everyone's involvement in framing the issues and questions, we worked through the grouped ideas and developed 4 possible futures for our institution. Over the next couple of years, we used these institutionally, and in our smaller area, in planning and, in conjunction with other methods, for decisions around where to invest our limited resources of time, energy, finance etc. I believe that some of the decisions we made in that period sent us in directions that we would not otherwise have considered. It widened our perceptions of relevant factors and taught us that everyone can have a voice, and that voices who question and ask about the new and different should be given a chance to express the relevance of these new ideas.
I still have a question - and I am sure that the rest of this course will answer it - what is the right balance of scenario planning with other techniques, and, how often is it valuable to complete the exercise, given that it does demand a lot to do it comprehensively?
Love your first sentence....why does there have to be a point? So often we look to the reason for doing something, instead of just enjoying the something itself. That doesn't quite make sense but you'll get what I mean!
ReplyDeleteI'm interested to read that you've done this before. Might have to pick your brains in a few days - I'm enjoying reading about SP and exploring all the links etc but still am not really sure what it looks like in practice in an educational setting. Although I haven't explored the JISC resource yet and that looked to have some pretty good specifics in it.
Enjoying reading your thoughts! :D
Phillipa
A reflective and insightful post. If our EDEM630 group can take scenario planning beyond a mere conceptual excercise. We will achieve something meaningful!
ReplyDeleteScenario planning is most effective in volatile "markets" -- areas where the rate of change is rapid and could have a major impact on the organisation. Scenario planning is not a replacement for conventional planning approaches. It is one of the strategic planning methods which smart organisations use in parallel with normal operational planning. The Shell corporation, for example, use scenario planning on an ongoing basis.
In an educational context - I would use scenario planning at organisational and departmental level in parallel with the strategic planning process -- that is every time you compile a strategic plan, conduct a scenario planning exercise. You can cut the cloth to fit budget. I've conducted successful scenario planning sessions in the format of a 1-day workshop. Teams can write up the scenarios after the day session. It needn't be an expensive or elaborate exercise. The more you do it -- the more skilled your team and organisation become with the methodology.
Scenario planning should be done as part of the organisational strategic planning process imo. The scenarios are used to stress test the draft departmental or organisational strategy.
I enjoyed reading your post Lyn and agree with your point that scenario planning can also help us recognize the possibility of futures we might not want to have. Wayne's response that he has used scenario planning in parallel with strategic planning makes me realise that SP is somewhat akin to what schools would refer to as establishing their vision.
ReplyDeleteHi Lyn, nice thought-provoking post. At this stage, all I have are questions, I'm afraid! I feel somehow relieved with Wayne's answer.
ReplyDeleteThanks for your comments, everyone. I do feel having read Wayne's reply, that we should probably run scenarios much more often. Pondering alternative visions seems a very healthy passtime.
ReplyDeleteI too enjoyed reading your post, Lyn.
ReplyDeleteGood explanation by Wayne, as well. Liked it!